Spatial Concentration of Military Dictatorships in Sub-Saharan Africa (1977-2007)

29 Pages Posted: 24 Jun 2014

See all articles by Raul Caruso

Raul Caruso

Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan

Ilaria Petrarca

University of Verona

Roberto Ricciuti

University of Verona - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Date Written: May 23, 2014

Abstract

We empirically investigate the existence of spatial autocorrelation between military dictatorships in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1977 through 2007. We apply a Bayesian SAR probit regression, extended to a pooled model. We find a robust and positive spatial autocorrelation coefficient, which shows a spatial concentration of military autocracies. In particular, in the aftermath of Cold War military regimes cluster in the central region. Among covariates, interestingly, foreign aid shows a positive association with military regimes during the Cold War while it turns to exhibit a negative association after 1989. With regard to other economic covariates, we find that: a) there is a negative association between GDP per capita and the existence of a military autocracy; b) a larger manufacturing sector is associated with a smaller probability of a military rule; c) a larger mining sector is associated with a higher likelihood of military rules; d) trade openness reduces the likelihood of militarization.

Keywords: military dictatorship, Sub-Saharan Africa, Bayesian SAR probit model, spatial autocorrelation, diffusion, concentration

JEL Classification: C210, H110, N470

Suggested Citation

Caruso, Raul and Petrarca, Ilaria and Ricciuti, Roberto, Spatial Concentration of Military Dictatorships in Sub-Saharan Africa (1977-2007) (May 23, 2014). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 4802, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2457836 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2457836

Raul Caruso

Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan ( email )

Largo Gemelli, 1
Via Necchi 9
Milan, MI 20123
Italy

Ilaria Petrarca

University of Verona ( email )

Via dell'Artigliere, 8
Verona, 37129
Italy

Roberto Ricciuti (Contact Author)

University of Verona - Department of Economics ( email )

Via dell'Artigliere, 8
37129 Verona
Italy

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

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