Current Obstacles in Replicating Risk Assessment Findings: A Systematic Review of Commonly Used Actuarial Instruments

Rossegger, A., Gerth, J., Seewald, K., Urbaniok, F., Singh J. P., & Endrass, J. (2013). Current obstacles in replicating risk assessment findings: A systematic review of commonly used actuarial instruments. Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 31, 154-164.

11 Pages Posted: 31 Jul 2014

See all articles by Astrid Rossegger

Astrid Rossegger

University of Konstanz - Department of Psychology

Juliane Gerth

University of Konstanz - Department of Psychology

Katharina Seewald

University of Konstanz - Department of Psychology

Frank Urbaniok

University of Konstanz - Department of Psychology

Jay Singh

Høgskolen i Molde; Global Institute of Forensic Research

Jérôme Endrass

University of Konstanz - Department of Psychology

Date Written: 2013

Abstract

An actuarial risk assessment instrument can be considered valid if independent investigations using novel samples can replicate the findings of the instrument’s development study. In order for a study to qualify as a replication, it has to adhere to the methodological protocol of the development study with respect to key design characteristics, as well as ensuring that manual-recommended guidelines of test administration have been followed. A systematic search was conducted to identify predictive validity studies (N=84) on three commonly used actuarial instruments: the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), and the Static-99. Sample (sex, age, criminal history) and design (follow-up, attrition, recidivism) characteristics, as well as markers of assessment integrity (scoring reliability, item omissions, prorating procedure), were extracted from 84 studies comprising 108 samples. None of the replications matched the development study of the instrument they were attempting to cross-validate with respect to key sample and design characteristics. Furthermore none of the replications strictly followed the manual-recommended guidelines for the instruments’ administration. Additional replication studies that follow the methodological protocols outlined in actuarial instruments’ development studies are needed before claims of generalizability can be made.

Keywords: Risk assessment, SORAG, VRAG, Static-99, Systematic review, Actuarial risk assessment instruments

Suggested Citation

Rossegger, Astrid and Gerth, Juliane and Seewald, Katharina and Urbaniok, Frank and Singh, Jay and Singh, Jay and Endrass, Jérôme, Current Obstacles in Replicating Risk Assessment Findings: A Systematic Review of Commonly Used Actuarial Instruments (2013). Rossegger, A., Gerth, J., Seewald, K., Urbaniok, F., Singh J. P., & Endrass, J. (2013). Current obstacles in replicating risk assessment findings: A systematic review of commonly used actuarial instruments. Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 31, 154-164., Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2473204

Astrid Rossegger

University of Konstanz - Department of Psychology ( email )

Konstanz, 78457
Germany

Juliane Gerth

University of Konstanz - Department of Psychology ( email )

Konstanz, 78457
Germany

Katharina Seewald

University of Konstanz - Department of Psychology ( email )

Konstanz, 78457
Germany

Frank Urbaniok

University of Konstanz - Department of Psychology ( email )

Konstanz, 78457
Germany

Jay Singh

Global Institute of Forensic Research ( email )

11700 Plaza America Drive
Suite 810
Reston, VA 20190
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.gifrinc.com

Høgskolen i Molde ( email )

Molde NO-6405
Norway

Jérôme Endrass (Contact Author)

University of Konstanz - Department of Psychology ( email )

Konstanz, 78457
Germany

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