Do Migrants Rob Jobs? New Evidence from Australia

Australian Economic History Review, Forthcoming

15 Pages Posted: 16 Sep 2014

See all articles by Gary Gang Tian

Gary Gang Tian

Macquarie University - Department of Applied Finance and Actuarial Studies; Macquarie University, Macquarie Business School

Jordan Shan

Peking University - Guanghua School of Management

Date Written: September 14, 2014

Abstract

Using a new Granger no-causality testing procedure, developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995), this study contributes to recent debate on immigration and unemployment in Australia by investigating the causal linkage between immigration and unemployment in a six-variable vector autoregresion (VAR) model. The VAR model in the paper is built upon a general unemployment equation developed by Pope and Withers (1993), using quarterly time series data covering the 1983:3 to 1995:4 period. The question that whether "immigrants rob jobs" is examined by identifying the sources of unemployment through causal linkages between unemployment and other key variables such as immigration. The research finds no Granger causality between immigration and unemployment. Instead, there is evidence of Granger causality running from structural change, as measured by the Stoikov Index, to unemployment and from other key variables to unemployment.

Suggested Citation

Tian, Gary Gang and Shan, Jordan, Do Migrants Rob Jobs? New Evidence from Australia (September 14, 2014). Australian Economic History Review, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2496171 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2496171

Gary Gang Tian (Contact Author)

Macquarie University - Department of Applied Finance and Actuarial Studies ( email )

Room 513, Building E4A
North Ryde, NSW, 2109
Australia

Macquarie University, Macquarie Business School ( email )

New South Wales 2109
Australia

Jordan Shan

Peking University - Guanghua School of Management

Peking University
Beijing, Beijing 100871
China

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