How Is It Possible for Keynes's Theory of Logical Probability to Be 'Non-Probabilistic'? Answer. Only If You Have Been Confused by Reading Frank P. Ramsey's Reviews of Keynes's A Treatise on Probability

Abstract

Ramsey’s fundamental error, made in both 1922 and in 1926, was to assume without any support that Keynes’s Logical Theory of Probability was based on ordinal measurement that could only be applied on some occasions. Keynes’s theory is not an ordinal theory at all. Keynes’s theory is an interval estimate theory of probability. Ramsey’s reviews of Keynes’s work in the A Treatise on Probability must now be consigned to the intellectual garbage dump of history where they belong.

Keywords: Interval estimates of probability, ordinal estimates, J M Keynes, F P Ramsey, non-probabilistic, upper and lower bounds

JEL Classification: B12, B20, B22, B30