Has the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership Affected Mediterranean Business Cycles?

Abstract

We date turning points of the reference cycle for 19 Mediterranean countries and analyze their structure and interdependencies. Fluctuations are volatile and not highly correlated across countries; recessions are deep but asynchronous, the distribution of output losses in recessions spread out. Heterogeneities across countries and regions are substantial. Cyclical fluctuations are poorly related to trade and financial linkages. Mediterranean cycles are time varying but their evolution is not linked with the Euro-Mediterranean partnership process.

Keywords: Euro-Mediterranean partnership, financial interdependences, reference cycles, trade, turning points

JEL Classification: C32, E32