Making Predictions: The Group Decision Forecasting (GDF) Problem

31 Pages Posted: 9 Oct 2014

See all articles by Steven O. Kimbrough

Steven O. Kimbrough

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School

Date Written: October 7, 2014

Abstract

This paper describes the group decision forecasting (or prediction) problem and explores a particular case of it. The case is that of what policy the Iranian government would implement for pursuing the war with Iran during the mid-1980s. This case is described in a well-known, if controversial paper by Bueno de Mesquita. Four generalized voting models are developed and explain in this paper, with somewhat conflicting results. The paper also presents a NetLogo implementation of the models, available on the NetLogo Modeling Commons. Finally, the concept of solution pluralism is discussed as a means of supporting deliberation in such contexts as group decision forecasting, in which both data and modeling techniques are problematic. It is argued that discovering robust solutions/predictions using computational methods offers at least a modicum of leverage in such difficult circumstances.

Keywords: solution pluralism, group decision forecasting, decision making, robustness

JEL Classification: C70, D7

Suggested Citation

Kimbrough, Steven O., Making Predictions: The Group Decision Forecasting (GDF) Problem (October 7, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2506969 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2506969

Steven O. Kimbrough (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School ( email )

3641 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6365
United States

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