Making Predictions: The Group Decision Forecasting (GDF) Problem
31 Pages Posted: 9 Oct 2014
Date Written: October 7, 2014
Abstract
This paper describes the group decision forecasting (or prediction) problem and explores a particular case of it. The case is that of what policy the Iranian government would implement for pursuing the war with Iran during the mid-1980s. This case is described in a well-known, if controversial paper by Bueno de Mesquita. Four generalized voting models are developed and explain in this paper, with somewhat conflicting results. The paper also presents a NetLogo implementation of the models, available on the NetLogo Modeling Commons. Finally, the concept of solution pluralism is discussed as a means of supporting deliberation in such contexts as group decision forecasting, in which both data and modeling techniques are problematic. It is argued that discovering robust solutions/predictions using computational methods offers at least a modicum of leverage in such difficult circumstances.
Keywords: solution pluralism, group decision forecasting, decision making, robustness
JEL Classification: C70, D7
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation