Projections for Eastern Australia's LNG Export Revenues: Opportunities and Risks in the Asia-Pacific Region

23 Pages Posted: 12 Nov 2014

See all articles by Tuong Che

Tuong Che

Australian National University (ANU)

Tom Kompas

University of Melbourne

Date Written: November 10, 2014

Abstract

Further links to the international LNG market implies that eastern Australia’s LNG export revenue will also depend on future LNG prices in the region. This paper provides the estimation of eastern Australia’s export revenue over the period of 2015-30 for different alternative LNG expansions, using different LNG price scenarios in the Asia-Pacific. The first case considered of future LNG exports is the 7 train Core case, which is based on the AEMO (2013 and 2014) and the Core Energy Group (2013). The second case of future LNG exports is based on the IES (2013). In each case of Australia’s future LNG development, three different scenarios of low, medium and high values are considered. For the first case, export revenues range from A$17-23 billion by 2020, and A$21-27 billion by 2030. For the second case, export revenues for all scenarios of LNG prices range from A $19 billion to A$33 billion by 2020 and A$21 billion to A$39 billion by 2030.

Keywords: Natural gas, liquefied natural gas pricing, LNG trade, Asia and the Pacific, LNG export, Australia.

Suggested Citation

Che, Tuong and Kompas, Tom, Projections for Eastern Australia's LNG Export Revenues: Opportunities and Risks in the Asia-Pacific Region (November 10, 2014). Crawford School Research Paper No. 14-11, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2522530 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2522530

Tuong Che (Contact Author)

Australian National University (ANU) ( email )

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601
Australia

Tom Kompas

University of Melbourne ( email )

Parkville, Victoria
Melbourne, Victoria 3010
Australia

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