The Simplest Test of Inflation Target Credibility

16 Pages Posted: 3 Nov 2003 Last revised: 1 Aug 2022

See all articles by Lars E. O. Svensson

Lars E. O. Svensson

Stockholm School of Economics; Stockholm University - Institute for International Economic Studies (IIES); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: December 1993

Abstract

A simple test of inflation target credibility is constructed by subtracting the maximum and minimum inflation rates consistent with the inflation targets from the yields to maturity on nominal bonds. This results in a target-consistent range of real yields on nominal bonds. If expected real yields, or market real interest rates on real bonds if such are available, fall outside the range of target- consistent real yields, credibility is rejected. Two concepts of credibility, called absolute credibility and credibility in expectation, are distinguished. The inflation targets of Canada, New Zealand and Sweden are examined with convenient diagrams over yields to maturity and forward interest rates.

Suggested Citation

Svensson, Lars E.O., The Simplest Test of Inflation Target Credibility (December 1993). NBER Working Paper No. w4604, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=253136

Lars E.O. Svensson (Contact Author)

Stockholm School of Economics ( email )

PO Box 6501
Stockholm, 11383
Sweden

HOME PAGE: http://larseosvensson.se

Stockholm University - Institute for International Economic Studies (IIES) ( email )

Stockholm, SE-10691
Sweden

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

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