Peoples of the Enemy? Ukrainians and Russians 1995-2011

Abstract

The ability of socioeconomic survey data to forecast civil conflicts has been little tested. This paper employs the World Values Surveys to study the 1995-2011 evolution of economic conditions and subjective political and societal views in Ukraine. Changes over time in outcomes in the mainly Russian-speaking Eastern and Southern regions are compared to both those in other regions and those in neighbouring Russian regions. During this period, Ukrainian citizens of the Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine became both generally more like neighbouring Russians and also more like their compatriots in their economic circumstances and views. Relative to Russian residents of border regions, respondents in Western Ukraine became generally more left-wing. As of 2011, there was no apparent socioeconomic or cultural divergence which might have predicted civil conflict in Ukraine.

Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, Poland, institutions, trust, liberalism, role of state, taxation, redistribution, cohort, youth, World Values Survey (WVS), Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)

JEL Classification: H00, J2, P3, P5