Climate Change, Groundwater Salinization and Road Maintenance Costs in Coastal Bangladesh

25 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Susmita Dasgupta

Susmita Dasgupta

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Md. Moqbul Hossain

Ministry of Agriculture, Bangladesh - Soil Research Development Institute

Mainul Huq

World Bank

David Wheeler

World Bank - Policy Research Department

Date Written: December 1, 2014

Abstract

The potentially-adverse impact of salinity on paved roads is well-established in the engineering literature. The problem seems destined to grow, as climate-related changes in sea level and riverine flows drive future increases in groundwater salinity. However, data scarcity has prevented systematic analysis for poor countries. This paper assesses the impact of groundwater salinity on road maintenance expenditures in the coastal region of Bangladesh. The assessment draws on new panel measures of salinity from 41 stations in coastal Bangladesh, and road maintenance expenditures, income, road network length, and road surfaces from 20 coastal municipalities. In a model relating maintenance expenditure for paved roads to groundwater salinity, municipal income, and road network length, large and significant effects are found for salinity. The regression model is used to predict the effect of within-sample salinity variation on road maintenance expenditure share, holding municipal income and road length constant at sample mean values. Increasing salinity from its sample minimum to its sample maximum increases the predicted road maintenance expenditure share by 252 percent. The implied welfare impact may also be substantial, particularly for poor households, if diversion of expenditures to road maintenance reduces support for community sanitation, health, and other infrastructure related programs.

Keywords: Science of Climate Change, Climate Change and Environment, Climate Change and Health

Suggested Citation

Dasgupta, Susmita and Hossain, Md. Moqbul and Huq, Mainul and Wheeler, David, Climate Change, Groundwater Salinization and Road Maintenance Costs in Coastal Bangladesh (December 1, 2014). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7147, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2544373

Susmita Dasgupta (Contact Author)

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://econ.worldbank.org/staff/sdasgupta

Md. Moqbul Hossain

Ministry of Agriculture, Bangladesh - Soil Research Development Institute

Bangladesh

Mainul Huq

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

David Wheeler

World Bank - Policy Research Department ( email )

1818 H Street N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

HOME PAGE: http://econ.worldbank.org/staff/dwheeler

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