The Pro-Russian Conflict and its Impact on Stock Returns in Russia and the Ukraine

10 Pages Posted: 7 Jan 2015

See all articles by Manuel Hoffmann

Manuel Hoffmann

Harvard University

Matthias Neuenkirch

University of Trier - Faculty of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Date Written: January 6, 2015

Abstract

We analyze the impact of the pro-Russian conflict on stock returns in Russia and the Ukraine during the period November 21, 2013 to September 29, 2014. We utilize a newly created indicator for the degree of (de-)escalation based on an Internet search for conflict-related news. We find that intensification of the conflict reduces Russian and Ukrainian stock returns. The (de-)escalation of the pro-Russian conflict in the Ukraine accounts for a total variation of 6.5 (8.7) percentage points in the Russian (Ukrainian) stock market.

Keywords: Conflict-Related News, Pro-Russian Conflict, Russia, Sanctions, Stock Returns, Ukraine

JEL Classification: F30, G12, G14, G15

Suggested Citation

Hoffmann, Manuel and Neuenkirch, Matthias, The Pro-Russian Conflict and its Impact on Stock Returns in Russia and the Ukraine (January 6, 2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2545884 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2545884

Manuel Hoffmann

Harvard University ( email )

150 Western Avenue; Science and Engineering Comple
Suite 6.201
Allston, MA 02134
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.manuelhoffmann.org

Matthias Neuenkirch (Contact Author)

University of Trier - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Universitätsring 15
Trier, 54296
Germany
+49 - (0)651 - 201 - 2629 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.uni-trier.de/index.php?id=50130

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

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