The Odds of Match Fixing - Facts & Figures on the Integrity Risk of Certain Sports Bets

Abstract

Media reports and interested stakeholders often suggest that certain types of sports bets would significantly increase the risks of match fixing occurring. These concerns also surface in policy discussions at both the national and European level. Frequently calls are made to prohibit the supply of “risky” sports bets as a means to preserve the integrity of sports competitions.

Questions about the appropriateness of imposing such limitations on the regulated sports betting, however, still linger. The lack of access to systematic empirical evidence on betting-related match fixing has so far limited the capacity of academic research to make a proper risk assessment of certain types of sports bets.

This is the first-ever study that assesses the integrity risks of certain sports bets on the basis of quantitative empirical evidence.

The research is mainly based on key statistics from Sportradar’s Fraud Detection System (FDS). A five-year dataset of football matches worldwide, which the FDS identified as likely to have been targeted by match fixers, was analysed to observe patterns and correlations with certain types of sports bets. In addition, representative samples of football bets placed with sports betting operator Betfair were collected and analysed.

Keywords: sports betting, match-fixing, betting-related match fixing, integrity risk, side bets, live betting, sport, monitoring statistics