Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk
The Wharton School Research Paper No. 76
Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research Paper
67 Pages Posted: 26 Jan 2015 Last revised: 12 Aug 2020
There are 3 versions of this paper
Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk
Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk
Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk
Date Written: October 3, 2017
Abstract
Contrary to well-known asset pricing models, volatilities implied by equity index options exceed realized stock market volatility and exhibit a pattern known as the volatility skew. We explain both facts using a model that can also account for the mean and volatility of equity returns. Our model assumes a small risk of economic disaster that is calibrated based on international data on large consumption declines. We allow the disaster probability to be stochastic, which turns out to be crucial to the model's ability both to match equity volatility and to reconcile option prices with macroeconomic data on disaster.
Keywords: implied volatilities, consumption disasters, jump-diffusions
JEL Classification: G12, G13
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
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