Tax Expenditure Estimates Approximate Revenue Estimates

7 Pages Posted: 21 Feb 2015 Last revised: 1 Apr 2015

Date Written: 2014

Abstract

Tax expenditure estimates are viewed with skepticism even within the fraught business of forecasting the revenue effects of policies. As the Joint Committee on Taxation emphasizes, Unlike revenue estimates, tax expenditure estimates do not incorporate any behavioral response of taxpayers or changes in the timing of tax payments.

While I agree that tax expenditure estimates and revenue estimates are not the same, I think the difference between them is overstated. Indeed, for revenue estimation purposes, tax expenditure estimates are almost as good as revenue estimates. Tax expenditure estimates do not account for important behavioral changes — taxpayers will substitute spending away from the now repealed tax expenditure toward other goods and spending. But that substitution effect is of little importance for revenue estimation purposes. Most or all of the substitute spending (on other goods instead of the good that was formerly tax preferred) would be subject to taxation. As a result, tax revenue should increase by nearly as much as the naïve tax expenditure estimates predict.

Keywords: Tax Expenditures, Revenue Estimates, Tax Reform

JEL Classification: H2, H3

Suggested Citation

Listokin, Yair, Tax Expenditure Estimates Approximate Revenue Estimates (2014). Tax Notes, Vol. 145, No. 6, 2014, Yale Law School, Public Law Research Paper No. 530, Yale Law & Economics Research Paper No. 522, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2567464

Yair Listokin (Contact Author)

Yale Law School ( email )

P.O. Box 208215
New Haven, CT 06520-8215
United States
203-436-2567 (Phone)

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