Forecast Horizon of 5th – 6th – 7th Long Wave and Short-Period of Contraction in Economic Cycles

Abstract

The purpose of this essay is to determine the forecast horizon of the fifth, sixth and seventh long wave. As the period of each long wave can change according to the data, it has been used a deterministic approach, based on historical chronologies of USA and UK economies worked out by several scholars, to determine average timing, period and forecast error of future long waves. In addition, the analysis shows that long waves have average upwave period longer than average downwave one. This result is also confirmed by US Business Cycles that have average contractions shorter than expansions phase over time.

Keywords: Forecast Horizon, Long Waves, Kondratieff Waves, Business Cycles, Asymmetric Path

JEL Classification: E30, E37