Business Cycles and the Scale of Economic Shock

WORKING PAPER CERIS-CNR, vol. 11, n. 6, pp. 1-24

24 Pages Posted: 22 Mar 2015 Last revised: 23 Mar 2018

See all articles by Mario Coccia

Mario Coccia

National Research Council of Italy (CNR)

Date Written: March 20, 2009

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to determine the scale of economic shocks (SES), considering a new indicator based on the duration (in months) of contractions and expansions within Business Cycles and their amplitude, measured by GDP percent change based on chained 2000 dollars. Data of US Business cycles are used. The result is that the SES shows the real economic impact of contractions and expansions over time and serves as a warning signal that the economic system is entering into a turbulent state in the shortrun.

Keywords: Business Cycles, Economic shock, Contractions, Expansions

JEL Classification: E30, E32, E37

Suggested Citation

Coccia, Mario, Business Cycles and the Scale of Economic Shock (March 20, 2009). WORKING PAPER CERIS-CNR, vol. 11, n. 6, pp. 1-24, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2581751 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2581751

Mario Coccia (Contact Author)

National Research Council of Italy (CNR) ( email )

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