Geographies of Violence: A Spatial Analysis of Five Types of Homicide in Brazil's Municipalities

Kellogg Institute for International Studies, Working Paper Series: #405

65 Pages Posted: 10 May 2015

Date Written: May 8, 2015

Abstract

Objectives: Examine the spatial distribution of five types of homicide across Brazil’s 5,562 municipalities and test the effects of family disruption, marginalization, poverty-reduction programs, environmental degradation, and the geographic diffusion of violence.

Methods: Cluster analysis and spatial error, spatial lag, and geographically-weighted regressions.

Results: Maps visualize clusters of high and low rates of different types of homicide. Core results from spatial regressions show that some predictors have uniform or stationary effects across all units, while other predictors have uneven, non-stationary effects. Among stationary effects, family disruption has a harmful effect across all types of homicide except femicide, and environmental degradation has a harmful effect, increasing the rates of femicide, gun-related, youth, and nonwhite homicides. Among non-stationary effects, marginalization has a harmful effect across all measures of homicide but poses the greatest danger to nonwhite populations in the northern part of Brazil; the poverty-reduction program Bolsa Família has a protective, negative effect for most types of homicides, especially for gun-related, youth, and nonwhite homicides. Lastly, homicide in nearby communities increases the likelihood of homicide in one’s home community, and this holds across all types of homicide. The diffusion effect also varies across geographic areas; the danger posed by nearby violence is strongest in the Amazon region and in a large section of the eastern coast.

Conclusions: Findings help identify the content of violence-reduction policies, how to prioritize different components of these policies, and how to target these policies by type of homicide and geographic area for maximum effect.

Keywords: homicide, Brazil, spatial analysis, GWR

JEL Classification: C15, C49, H79, I12, J12, K42

Suggested Citation

Ingram, Matthew C. and Marchesini da Costa, Marcelo, Geographies of Violence: A Spatial Analysis of Five Types of Homicide in Brazil's Municipalities (May 8, 2015). Kellogg Institute for International Studies, Working Paper Series: #405, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2604096 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2604096

Matthew C. Ingram (Contact Author)

SUNY University at Albany ( email )

135 Western Ave
Milne Hall 314-A
Albany, NY 12222
United States

Marcelo Marchesini da Costa

SUNY University at Albany ( email )

1400 Washington Avenue
Building, Room 109
Albany, NY 12222
United States

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