Realism, Idealism, and American Public Opinion on Nuclear Disarmament

Abstract

To what extent does U.S. public opinion on foreign policy reflect realist principles? Scholars traditionally assumed the American public to be unsympathetic to realist thinking, but an increasing consensus has emerged opposing this view. We investigate the limits of this consensus with the first experimental study of the determinants of public support for nuclear disarmament. Using survey experiments and recently developed text analysis techniques, we examine the existence of realist thought within U.S. public opinion on nuclear disarmament, an issue area in which Americans consistently appear to hold decidedly non-realist views. We find strong currents of realist and more idealistic thinking combine in a particular form: idealistic principles play an important role in sustaining robust majority support for disarmament across a range of scenarios, but realist concerns remain salient, and public support is sensitive to many of the same factors that realists have identified as strategic barriers to disarmament. Our results highlight how strategic and normative modes of thinking interact in shaping public opinion on disarmament, and have direct implications for politicians and practitioners seeking nuclear disarmament in the future.