Investigating the International Prices of Wheat and Rice

Agricultural and Food Economics. Forthcoming

18 Pages Posted: 4 Jun 2015 Last revised: 25 Jun 2015

See all articles by Anthony N. Rezitis

Anthony N. Rezitis

Agricultural University of Athens - Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development

Anastasia Ntinou

University of Western Greece

Dimitris Pachis

University of Patras - Department of Business Administration of Food and Agricultural Enterprises

Date Written: June 2, 2015

Abstract

This paper investigates the international quarterly prices of wheat and rice from 1983(1) to 2012(4). The empirical analysis takes place with the structural time series methodology which decomposes the price series into their trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular components. The empirical results indicate that wheat prices present cyclical behavior while rice prices except for cyclicality are mainly governed by the irregular component. The results strain the importance of treating wheat and rice like two distinct commodities that require country specific and commodity specific policy measures. Finally, the impact of the shrinking Chinese grain stocks after 2002 is proposed as an important factor that resulted in the 2008 price spike.

Keywords: structural time series, international prices, wheat, rice

Suggested Citation

Rezitis, Anthony N. and Ntinou, Anastasia and Pachis, Dimitris, Investigating the International Prices of Wheat and Rice (June 2, 2015). Agricultural and Food Economics. Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2613268 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2613268

Anthony N. Rezitis (Contact Author)

Agricultural University of Athens - Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development ( email )

Athens
Greece

Anastasia Ntinou

University of Western Greece ( email )

Agrinio
Greece

Dimitris Pachis

University of Patras - Department of Business Administration of Food and Agricultural Enterprises ( email )

G. Seferi 2
Agrinio, 30100
Greece

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