Guarding Against False Positives in Qualitative Comparative Analysis

Guarding Against False Positives in Qualitative Comparative Analysis, Bear F. Braumoeller, Political Analysis 2015; doi: 10.1093/pan/mpv017

Posted: 9 Jun 2015 Last revised: 27 Jul 2015

See all articles by Bear Braumoeller

Bear Braumoeller

Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Political Science

Date Written: July 25, 2015

Abstract

The various methodological techniques that fall under the umbrella description of qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) are increasingly popular for modeling causal complexity and necessary or sufficient conditions in medium-N settings. Because QCA methods are not designed as statistical techniques, however, there is no way to assess the probability that the patterns they uncover are the result of chance. Moreover, the implications of the multiple hypothesis tests inherent in these techniques for the false positive rate of the results are not widely understood. This article fills both gaps by tailoring a simple permutation test to the needs of QCA users and adjusting the Type I error rate of the test to take into account the multiple hypothesis tests inherent in QCA. An empirical application — a reexamination of a study of protest-movement success in the Arab Spring — highlights the need for such a test by showing that even very strong QCA results may plausibly be the result of chance.

Keywords: QCA, fsQCA, type 1 error, false positive, permutation test, Arab Spring

Suggested Citation

Braumoeller, Bear, Guarding Against False Positives in Qualitative Comparative Analysis (July 25, 2015). Guarding Against False Positives in Qualitative Comparative Analysis, Bear F. Braumoeller, Political Analysis 2015; doi: 10.1093/pan/mpv017, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2615900

Bear Braumoeller (Contact Author)

Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Political Science ( email )

Columbus, OH 43210
United States

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