Two-Group Dynamic Conflict Scenarios: 'Toy Model' with a Severity Index

Kaufman, S., & Kaufman, M. (2015). Two‐Group Dynamic Conflict Scenarios: “Toy Model” with a Severity Index. Negotiation and Conflict Management Research, 8(1), 41-55.

21 Pages Posted: 29 Jun 2015

See all articles by Sanda Kaufman

Sanda Kaufman

Cleveland State University - Maxine Goodman Levin College of Urban Affairs

Miron Kaufman

Cleveland State University

Date Written: February 2015

Abstract

This article draws on several research domains and disciplines –social psychology, models of complex systems, and planning scenario analysis – to propose a “toy” model of the dynamics of inter-group conflicts. The ingroup-outgroup conflict literature supports the notion that inside groups in conflict there are subgroups of intransigents seeking to “fight it out,” and flexibles seeking avenues for settlements. There is also support for the intransigents and flexibles in the two groups being susceptible to each other’s goading to escalate conflicts or entreaties to reach agreement. However, since two-group conflicts are embedded in complex systems with which they interact, it is difficult to predict outcomes and to assess the chances that intervention strategies might succeed or fail. We propose to use the model of two-group conflicts based on the mutual usceptibilities of flexibles and intransigents (Kaufman & Kaufman, 2013) to construct toy-model scenarios of possible conflict trajectories. For each scenario we compute a Severity Index for Conflicts (SIC) that captures the likelihood that it will end in confrontation (rather than agreement). We offer some examples of intra-national and international conflicts and show how the scenarios can be analyzed qualitatively to explore the range of possible outcomes. Further developments will include sensitivity analyses for various assumptions, and asking “what if” questions that can inform strategies of response and intervention.

Keywords: two-group conflict, conflict severity index, dynamic modeling, toy models

JEL Classification: CMBO, CSN

Suggested Citation

Kaufman, Sanda and Kaufman, Miron, Two-Group Dynamic Conflict Scenarios: 'Toy Model' with a Severity Index (February 2015). Kaufman, S., & Kaufman, M. (2015). Two‐Group Dynamic Conflict Scenarios: “Toy Model” with a Severity Index. Negotiation and Conflict Management Research, 8(1), 41-55., Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2624182

Sanda Kaufman (Contact Author)

Cleveland State University - Maxine Goodman Levin College of Urban Affairs ( email )

1717 Euclid Avenue
Cleveland, OH 44115
United States

Miron Kaufman

Cleveland State University ( email )

Cleveland, OH 44115
United States

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