From Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment

64 Pages Posted: 18 Aug 2015 Last revised: 19 Feb 2023

See all articles by Rajeev H. Dehejia

Rajeev H. Dehejia

New York University (NYU) - Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); CESifo

Cristian Pop-Eleches

Columbia University - School of International & Public Affairs (SIPA)

Cyrus Samii

New York University (NYU) - Wilf Family Department of Politics

Multiple version iconThere are 4 versions of this paper

Date Written: August 2015

Abstract

We study issues related to external validity for treatment effects using over 100 replications of the Angrist and Evans (1998) natural experiment on the effects of sibling sex composition on fertility and labor supply. The replications are based on census data from around the world going back to 1960. We decompose sources of error in predicting treatment effects in external contexts in terms of macro and micro sources of variation. In our empirical setting, we find that macro covariates dominate over micro covariates for reducing errors in predicting treatments, an issue that past studies of external validity have been unable to evaluate. We develop methods for two applications to evidence-based decision-making, including determining where to locate an experiment and whether policy-makers should commission new experiments or rely on an existing evidence base for making a policy decision.

Suggested Citation

Dehejia, Rajeev H. and Pop-Eleches, Cristian (Kiki) and Samii, Cyrus, From Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment (August 2015). NBER Working Paper No. w21459, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2645555

Rajeev H. Dehejia (Contact Author)

New York University (NYU) - Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service ( email )

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Cristian (Kiki) Pop-Eleches

Columbia University - School of International & Public Affairs (SIPA) ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://www.columbia.edu/~cp2124

Cyrus Samii

New York University (NYU) - Wilf Family Department of Politics ( email )

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New York, NY 10003
United States

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