Decadal Fossil Fuel Emissions and Decadal Warming: A Note

Abstract

Detrended correlation analysis of mean decadal fossil fuel emissions and mean decadal warming rates in the sample period 1850-2014 at lags of 0, 5, 10, and 15 years shows no evidence that the two series are causally related at a decadal frequency. Further tests at different lengths of the moving window also failed to detect a correlation between the two detrended time series. These findings are inconsistent with the claim that changes in fossil fuel emissions have a measurable effect on warming at a frequency response in the range of one or two decades.

Keywords: global warming, climate change, global warming pause, warming hiatus, Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic process, moving decadal analysis, uncertainty, anthropogenic emissions, carbon dioxide, temperature trends, detrended analysis, agw, cagw, human emissions, fossil fuels, pause in global warming