Probabilistic Recognition Heuristic

20 Pages Posted: 17 Oct 2015

See all articles by Martin Egozcue

Martin Egozcue

University of Montevideo

Luis Fuentes García

University of Coruña

Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos

Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Human Development

Michael Smithson

Australian National University (ANU)

Date Written: October 17, 2015

Abstract

According to the recognition heuristic, people infer that an object they recognize has a higher value on a criterion of interest than an object they do not recognize. This model has been analyzed and conditions for the less-is-more effect- where recognizing fewer objects increases inferential accuracy have been derived. We extend previous studies by modelling this heuristic including the probabilistic recognition of objects and provide a number of results: First, we derive closed-form expressions for the parameters of the original model, in terms of the distributions of recognition and other cues over the objects. Second, we use the expressions to analyze the less-is-more effect. Third, we assume that the vectors of objects is random and use the expressions to calculate and compare the expected accuracy probability of success and derive the conditions under which the model equal or surpass the accuracy of random inference. Our results are general and can thus be linked to any model of recognition-based inference.

Keywords: recognition, heuristic, accuracy rate

Suggested Citation

Egozcue, Martin and García, Luis Fuentes and Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V. and Smithson, Michael, Probabilistic Recognition Heuristic (October 17, 2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2675536 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2675536

Martin Egozcue (Contact Author)

University of Montevideo ( email )

Montevideo 11600
Montevideo, Montevideo
Uruguay

Luis Fuentes García

University of Coruña ( email )

Campus Elviña s/n
Coruña, Galicia 15071
Spain

Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos

Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Human Development ( email )

Lentzeallee 94
D-14195 Berlin, 14195
Germany
+49-(0)30-82406-354 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://ntfm.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/mpib/FMPro?-db=MPIB_Mitarbeiter.FP5&-lay=L1&-format=MPIB_Mit.htm&-op=

Michael Smithson

Australian National University (ANU) ( email )

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601
Australia

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