'Curse' of Ability? Performance, Political Connection and Promotion of Chinese City Leaders

Abstract

Through analyzing panel data of city leaders from China, this study shows that economic performance is negatively correlated with probability of promotion if the city leader is not politically connected with provincial leader. The correlation becomes positive if the city leader establishes connection with provincial leader. These empirical findings are consistent with the theory of trade-off between competence and loyalty in dictatorship. When agent can’t commit to be loyal through establishing connection, the principle would rather promote low ability agents and high competence becomes “Curse” for the agents.

Keywords: Promotion, ability, China

JEL Classification: H70