Consumption Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving

69 Pages Posted: 3 Dec 2015 Last revised: 21 Dec 2018

See all articles by Dimitris Christelis

Dimitris Christelis

Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow; Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples Federico II; Center for Financial Studies (CFS); Netspar; CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF)

Dimitris Georgarakos

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research; Center for Financial Studies (CFS)

Tullio Jappelli

University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics and Statistics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI); Center for Studies in Economics and Finance - CSEF; CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF)

Maarten van Rooij

De Nederlandsche Bank; Netspar

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 1, 2018

Abstract

Using survey data from a representative sample of Dutch households, we estimate the strength of the precautionary saving motive by eliciting subjective expectations on future consumption. We find that expected consumption risk is higher for the young and the self-employed, and is correlated positively with income risk. We insert these subjective expectations (rather than consumption realizations, as in the existing literature) in a Euler equation for consumption, and estimate the degree of prudence by associating expected consumption risk with expected consumption growth. Robust OLS and IV estimates both indicate a coefficient of relative prudence of around 2.

Keywords: Consumption Risk, Euler Equation, Prudence, Precautionary Saving, Subjective Expectations

JEL Classification: D12, D14, D81, E03, E21, C14

Suggested Citation

Christelis, Dimitrios and Georgarakos, Dimitris and Jappelli, Tullio and van Rooij, Maarten, Consumption Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving (December 1, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2698098 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2698098

Dimitrios Christelis (Contact Author)

Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow ( email )

Room 207F, Gilbert Scott Building
University Avenue
Glasgow, Scotland G12 8QQ
United Kingdom
+44 141330 2000 (ext. 0624) (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.gla.ac.uk/schools/business/staff/dimitrioschristelis/

Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples Federico II ( email )

Via Cintia, Monte S. Angelo
Naples, NA 80126
Italy

Center for Financial Studies (CFS) ( email )

Grüneburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

Netspar ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF) ( email )

Via Cintia
Complesso Monte S. Angelo
Naples, Naples 80126
Italy

Dimitris Georgarakos

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 20
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Center for Financial Studies (CFS) ( email )

Grüneburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

Tullio Jappelli

University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics and Statistics ( email )

Via Cintia - Monte S. Angelo
Napoli, 80126
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.csef.it/people/jappelli.htm

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.cepr.org/researchers/details/rschcontact.asp?IDENT=106354

European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

c/o the Royal Academies of Belgium
Rue Ducale 1 Hertogsstraat
1000 Brussels
Belgium

HOME PAGE: http://www.ecgi.org

Center for Studies in Economics and Finance - CSEF ( email )

Via Cintia - Monte S. Angelo
Napoli, 80126
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.csef.it/people/jappelli.htm

CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF) ( email )

Via Cintia
Complesso Monte S. Angelo
Naples, Naples 80126
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.csef.it/people/jappelli.htm

Maarten van Rooij

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

P.O. Box 98
Amsterdam, 1000 AB
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://www.dnb.nl/en/onderzoek-2/onderzoekers/overzicht-persoonlijke-paginas/dnb150127.jsp

Netspar ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
152
Abstract Views
1,208
Rank
163,454
PlumX Metrics