On the Use of Market-Based Probabilities for Policy Decisions
11 Pages Posted: 15 Dec 2015
Date Written: December, 2015
Abstract
This paper seeks to delimit conditions so that market-based probabilities provide all the information the policymaker needs to arrive at the best possible decision. Although there are practical considerations regarding how to derive market-based probabilities from financial prices, the author confines the discussion to a theoretical analysis that assumes no impediment to obtaining the market-based probabilities.
Keywords: Policy, Market-based probabilities, policymakers
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Armenter, Roc, On the Use of Market-Based Probabilities for Policy Decisions (December, 2015). FRB of Philadelphia Working Paper No. 15-44, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2703735
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Feedback
Feedback to SSRN
If you need immediate assistance, call 877-SSRNHelp (877 777 6435) in the United States, or +1 212 448 2500 outside of the United States, 8:30AM to 6:00PM U.S. Eastern, Monday - Friday.