Experimental Evidence on Valuation with Multiple Priors

Abstract

Popular models for decision making under ambiguity assume that people use not one but multiple priors. This paper is a first attempt to experimentally elicit the min and the max of multiple priors directly. In an ambiguous scenario we measure a participant’s single prior, her min and max of multiple priors, and the valuation of an ambiguous asset with the same underlying states as the ambiguous scenario. We use the min and the max of multiple priors to directly test two popular multiple priors models: the maxmin model and the alpha maxmin model. We find more support for the alpha maxmin model: although people put about twice the weight on the minimum of multiple priors, they also consider the maximum. Furthermore, we indirectly elicit confidence weights over the whole set of multiple priors and test two additional models: variational preferences and the smooth model of ambiguity. Two particular versions of the variational preferences model explain less than the alpha maxmin but more than the maxmin model. Overall, the smooth model of ambiguity performs best among all models tested.

Keywords: ambiguity, multiple priors, valuations, experiment

JEL Classification: C91, D81