Sovereign Credit Rating Determinants: The Impact of the European Debt Crisis

31 Pages Posted: 9 May 2016

See all articles by Peter Reusens

Peter Reusens

KU Leuven - Faculty of Economics and Business

Christophe Croux

KU Leuven - Faculty of Business and Economics (FEB)

Date Written: April 2016

Abstract

This paper compares the importance of different sovereign credit rating determinants over time, using a sample of 90 countries for the years 2002-2015. Applying the composite marginal likelihood approach, we estimate a multi-year ordered probit model for each of the three major credit rating agencies. After the start of the European debt crisis in 2009, the importance of the financial balance, the economic development and the external debt increased substantially and the effect of eurozone membership switched from positive to negative. In addition, GDP growth gained a lot of importance for highly indebted sovereigns and government debt became much more important for countries with a low GDP growth rate. These findings provide empirical evidence that the credit rating agencies changed their sovereign credit rating assessment after the start of the European debt crisis.

Keywords: Composite Marginal Likelihood, Credit Rating Agencies, European Debt Crisis, Multi-Year Ordered Probit Model, Sovereign Credit Rating Determinants

JEL Classification: C33, C35, F34, G24, H63

Suggested Citation

Reusens, Peter and Croux, Christophe, Sovereign Credit Rating Determinants: The Impact of the European Debt Crisis (April 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2777491

Peter Reusens (Contact Author)

KU Leuven - Faculty of Economics and Business ( email )

Naamsestraat 69
Leuven, B-3000
Belgium

Christophe Croux

KU Leuven - Faculty of Business and Economics (FEB) ( email )

Naamsestraat 69
Leuven, B-3000
Belgium

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