Forecast 2016-2017: Russia’s Economy to Enter a Stabilization Zone

Russian Economic Developments. Moscow, 2016, No. 5, pp. 2-8

7 Pages Posted: 19 May 2016

See all articles by Vladimir Averkiev

Vladimir Averkiev

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Sergey Drobyshevsky

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Marina Turuntseva

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA)

Michael Khromov

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Date Written: May 19, 2016

Abstract

Developments that unfolded in Q1 2016, particularly the decline of crude oil prices down to a 12-year low, may result in worse-than-expected outcomes at 2016 year-end. Unlike the forecast that we made in January, we have revised down our 2016 baseline scenario for GDP growth rates from -1.4% to -2.0%. In recent two weeks the IMF and the World Bank have downgraded their forecasts for Russia’s economy growth rates, too. At the same time, if oil prices n 2017 stay at $40 a barrel, then output is expected to stabilize or even edge up. In other words, it is highly likely that Russia’s economy will move out of a recession in 2016, and in 2017 Russia’s output will enter a zone of positive growth rates. However, this is a stagnation rather than growth scenario due to uncertainty. Furthermore, the forecast dynamics of other key macroeconomic parameters in 2016 suggest that Russia’s economy will stabilize and that the economic downturn, high inflation and high volatility of the Russian rouble will stop.

Keywords: Russian economy

JEL Classification: O32, O38

Suggested Citation

Averkiev, Vladimir and Drobyshevsky, Sergey and Turuntseva, Marina and Khromov, Michael, Forecast 2016-2017: Russia’s Economy to Enter a Stabilization Zone (May 19, 2016). Russian Economic Developments. Moscow, 2016, No. 5, pp. 2-8, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2781889 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2781889

Vladimir Averkiev

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

Gazetny lane 3-5, build. 1
Moscow, 125993
Russia

Sergey Drobyshevsky

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

Gazetny pereulok, 3-5
Moscow, 125993
Russia

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration ( email )

Varnadskogo Avenue,82
Moscow, 119571
Russia

Marina Turuntseva

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Gazetny lane, 3-5
Moscow, 125993
Russia

Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) ( email )

Varnadskogo Avenue,82
Moscow, 119571
Russia

Michael Khromov (Contact Author)

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

3-5 Gazetny Lane
Moscow, 125009
Russia

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