Macroeconomics, Aging and Growth

71 Pages Posted: 7 Jun 2016 Last revised: 18 Jun 2023

See all articles by Ronald D. Lee

Ronald D. Lee

University of California, Berkeley - Department of Demography; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: June 2016

Abstract

Inevitable population aging and slower population growth will affect the economies of all nations in ways influenced by cultural values, institutional arrangements, and economic incentives. One outcome will be a tendency toward increased capital intensity, higher wages, and lower returns on capital, a tendency partially offset when the elderly are supported by public or private transfers rather than assets, and when economies are open, in which case aging will lead to increased flows of capital and labor. Rising human capital investment per child accompanies the falling fertility that drives population aging, and partially offsets slower labor force growth. Research to date finds little effect on technological progress or labor productivity. National differences in labor supply at older ages, per capita consumption of the elderly relative to younger ages, strength of public pension and health care systems, and health and vitality of the elderly all condition the impact of population aging on the economy. Policy responses include increasing the size of the labor force, mainly by raising the retirement age; reducing benefits and/or raising taxes for public transfer programs for the elderly, with concern for dead-weight loss and the fair distribution of costs across socioeconomic classes; investing more in children to increase the quality and productivity of the future labor force; and public programs that promote fertility by facilitating market work for women with children.

Suggested Citation

Lee, Ronald D., Macroeconomics, Aging and Growth (June 2016). NBER Working Paper No. w22310, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2790707

Ronald D. Lee (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley - Department of Demography ( email )

2232 Piedmont Avenue
Berkeley, CA 94720-2120
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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