The Economics of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: Understanding the Alternative Estimates

Abstract

Since the conclusion of the TPP negotiations, a number of studies have been put in the public domain providing estimates of the likely impacts. The estimates vary by a very large magnitude, from negative impacts to major gains, which has raised questions about the methodologies being used to generate them. This note reviews the sources of differences of seven studies, including official studies released by the United States and Canada. It demonstrates that studies of the TPP that are based on close readings of the TPP text find small impacts, when the agreement is evaluated in conventional terms.

Keywords: Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP, CGE, Quantitative Models

JEL Classification: F13, F14