An Evaluation Framework for Oil Import Security Based on the Supply Chain with a Case Study Focused on China

Energy Economics, 38: 87-95.

23 Pages Posted: 5 Jul 2016 Last revised: 7 Jul 2016

See all articles by Hai-Ying Zhang

Hai-Ying Zhang

Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)

Qiang Ji

Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) - Institute of Policy and Management

Ying Fan

Chinese Academy of Sciences - Institute of Policy and Management - Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research

Date Written: 2013

Abstract

The import risks confronting oil consumers are influenced by transport conditions, oil prices, geopolitics, etc. This paper constructs an evaluation framework for oil import security from a perspective of supply chain process, and builds a two-phase DEA-like model to evaluate oil import security. China is taken as an example to measure its oil import security during 1993-2011 and to identify the main risk factors in different periods. Results indicate that China's oil import risks have kept rising since 1993 and face multiple potential threats from each stage of oil import supply chain, among which the threat from external dependence has become the biggest challenge. Under different economic situations and changing energy environment, the risk factors affecting China's oil import security switched among different stages of the supply chain, showing a phase-transitioning characteristic from import over-dependence to increasing external supply pressure. The threat of external supply has become a new risk since the pressure of decreasing availability of external resource rose.

Keywords: Oil import security; Supply chain risk evaluation; DEA-like model

Suggested Citation

Zhang, Hai-Ying and Ji, Qiang and Fan, Ying, An Evaluation Framework for Oil Import Security Based on the Supply Chain with a Case Study Focused on China (2013). Energy Economics, 38: 87-95., Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2804469

Hai-Ying Zhang

Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ( email )

52 Sanlihe Rd.
Datun Road, Anwai
Beijing, Xicheng District 100864
China

Qiang Ji (Contact Author)

Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) - Institute of Policy and Management ( email )

No.15 ZhongGuanCun BeiYiTiao Alley
Haidian District
Beijing, 100190
China

Ying Fan

Chinese Academy of Sciences - Institute of Policy and Management - Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research ( email )

52 Sanlihe Rd.
Datun Road, Anwai
Beijing, Xicheng District 100864
China

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