Who Wants to Leave China?

Abstract

Recent studies have shown that misinformation can affect citizens’ voice and loyalty to their governments. Can misinformation also shape people’s exit intentions? Using unique experimental and survey data, this research finds that Chinese citizens with more positive perceptions and, especially, overestimation of foreign socioeconomic conditions are more interested in going abroad. Moreover, correcting socioeconomic overestimation of foreign countries reduces their interest in leaving China, indicating that there is a causal effect from rosier perceptions of foreign conditions to higher interest in going abroad, and emigration does not always represent well-informed “voting by feet.” The relationship between international political knowledge and interest in exiting the country, on the other hand, is not significant or consistent, which suggests that Chinese citizens’ interest in going abroad is primarily socioeconomic rather than political in nature. These results contribute to the study of citizen misperception and misinformation, challenge a prevalent assumption in the international migration literature, and help us understand one of the most important social trends in the world’s largest developing and authoritarian country.

Keywords: International Migration, Exit, Information, Survey, Experiment