Africa's Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend

24 Pages Posted: 6 Sep 2016

See all articles by David E. Bloom

David E. Bloom

Harvard University - T.H. Chan School of Public Health; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Michael Kuhn

University of Vienna - Vienna Institute of Demography

Klaus Prettner

Vienna University of Economics and Business - Department of Economics

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Abstract

We assess Africa's prospects for enjoying a demographic dividend. While fertility rates and dependency ratios in Africa remain high, they have started to decline. According to UN projections, they will fall further in the coming decades such that by the mid-21st century the ratio of the working-age to dependent population will be greater than in Asia, Europe, and Northern America. This projection suggests Africa has considerable potential to enjoy a demographic dividend. Whether and when it actually materializes, and also its magnitude, hinges on policies and institutions in key realms that include macroeconomic management, human capital, trade, governance, and labor and capital markets. Given strong complementarities among these areas, coordinated policies will likely be most effective in generating the momentum needed to pull Africa's economies out of a development trap.

Keywords: Africa, declining fertility, demographic dividend, development, education, health, infrastructure

JEL Classification: J11, J13, J16, O10

Suggested Citation

Bloom, David E. and Kuhn, Michael and Prettner, Klaus, Africa's Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend. IZA Discussion Paper No. 10161, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2834211 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2834211

David E. Bloom (Contact Author)

Harvard University - T.H. Chan School of Public Health ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Michael Kuhn

University of Vienna - Vienna Institute of Demography ( email )

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Austria

Klaus Prettner

Vienna University of Economics and Business - Department of Economics ( email )

Augasse 2-6
A-1090 Wien
Austria

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