What Is the Probability of Receiving a US Patent?

Abstract

We follow the prosecution histories of the 2.15 million new patent applications filed at the US Patent and Trademark Office between 1996 and 2005 to calculate patent allowance rates. 55.8% of the applications emerged as patents without using continuation procedures to spawn related applications. The success rate of applications decreased substantially from 1996 to 2005, particularly for applications in the “Drugs and Medical Instruments” and “Computers and Communications” fields. Applications filed by large firms are more likely to emerge as patents than those filed by small firms. We discuss the implications of our findings for inventors, policy makers, and social scientists who use successful patent applications as indicators of innovation.

Keywords: patent

JEL Classification: O34