Two Blades of Grass: The Impact of the Green Revolution

72 Pages Posted: 7 Nov 2016

See all articles by Douglas Gollin

Douglas Gollin

Oxford Department of International Development; Williams College; Yale University

Casper Worm Hansen

University of Copenhagen - Department of Economics; University of Copenhagen

Asger Moll Wingender

University of Copenhagen - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: November 2016

Abstract

We examine the impact of the Green Revolution, defined as the diffusion of high-yielding crop varieties (HYVs), on aggregate economic outcomes in developing countries during the second half of the 20th century. We use time variation in the development and diffusion of HYVs of 10 major crops, and the spatial variation in agro-climatically suitability for growing them, to identify the causal effects of adoption. In a sample of 84 counties, we estimate that a 10 percentage points increase in HYV adoption increases GDP per capita by about 15 percent. This effect is fully accounted for by a combination of the direct effect on crop yields, factor adjustment in agriculture, and structural transformation. Our analysis also reveals that the Green Revolution reduced fertility and that the reduction was only partly offset by decreasing mortality rates. The net effect on population growth was therefore negative.

Keywords: agriculture, Green Revolution, High Yielding Variety crops, macoeconomic development, productivity shock

JEL Classification: N50, O11, O13, O50, Q16

Suggested Citation

Gollin, Douglas and Hansen, Casper Worm and Hansen, Casper Worm and Wingender, Asger Moll, Two Blades of Grass: The Impact of the Green Revolution (November 2016). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP11611, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2865881

Douglas Gollin (Contact Author)

Oxford Department of International Development ( email )

Queen Elizabeth House
3 Mansfield Road
Oxford, OX1 3TB
United Kingdom

Williams College ( email )

Fernald House
Williamstown, MA 01267
United States

Yale University ( email )

28 Hillhouse Ave
New Haven, CT 06520-8264
United States

Casper Worm Hansen

University of Copenhagen - Department of Economics ( email )

Øster Farimagsgade 5
Copenhagen K, DK 1153
Denmark

University of Copenhagen ( email )

Nørregade 10
Copenhagen, København DK-1165
Denmark

Asger Moll Wingender

University of Copenhagen - Department of Economics ( email )

Øster Farimagsgade 5
Bygning 26
1353 Copenhagen K.
Denmark

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
0
Abstract Views
665
PlumX Metrics