Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations

50 Pages Posted: 14 Nov 2016 Last revised: 18 Sep 2019

See all articles by Dimitris Christelis

Dimitris Christelis

Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow; Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples Federico II; Center for Financial Studies (CFS); Netspar; CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF)

Dimitris Georgarakos

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research; Center for Financial Studies (CFS)

Tullio Jappelli

University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics and Statistics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI); Center for Studies in Economics and Finance - CSEF; CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF)

Maarten van Rooij

De Nederlandsche Bank; Netspar

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: November 12, 2016

Abstract

Using micro data from the 2015 Dutch CentERpanel, we examine whether trust in the European Central Bank (ECB) influences individuals’ expectations and uncertainty about future inflation, and whether it anchors inflation expectations. We find that higher trust in the ECB lowers inflation expectations on average, and significantly reduces uncertainty about future inflation. Moreover, results from quantile regressions suggest that trusting the ECB increases (lowers) inflation expectations when the latter are below (above) the ECB’s inflation target. These findings hold after controlling for people’s knowledge about the objectives of the ECB.

Keywords: Inflation expectations, Inflation uncertainty, Anchoring, Trust in the ECB, Subjective Expectations

JEL Classification: D12, D81, E03, E40, E58

Suggested Citation

Christelis, Dimitrios and Georgarakos, Dimitris and Jappelli, Tullio and van Rooij, Maarten, Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations (November 12, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2868508 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2868508

Dimitrios Christelis

Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow ( email )

Room 207F, Gilbert Scott Building
University Avenue
Glasgow, Scotland G12 8QQ
United Kingdom
+44 141330 2000 (ext. 0624) (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.gla.ac.uk/schools/business/staff/dimitrioschristelis/

Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples Federico II ( email )

Via Cintia, Monte S. Angelo
Naples, NA 80126
Italy

Center for Financial Studies (CFS) ( email )

Grüneburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

Netspar ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF) ( email )

Via Cintia
Complesso Monte S. Angelo
Naples, Naples 80126
Italy

Dimitris Georgarakos (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 20
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Center for Financial Studies (CFS) ( email )

Grüneburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

Tullio Jappelli

University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics and Statistics ( email )

Via Cintia - Monte S. Angelo
Napoli, 80126
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.csef.it/people/jappelli.htm

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.cepr.org/researchers/details/rschcontact.asp?IDENT=106354

European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

c/o the Royal Academies of Belgium
Rue Ducale 1 Hertogsstraat
1000 Brussels
Belgium

HOME PAGE: http://www.ecgi.org

Center for Studies in Economics and Finance - CSEF ( email )

Via Cintia - Monte S. Angelo
Napoli, 80126
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.csef.it/people/jappelli.htm

CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF) ( email )

Via Cintia
Complesso Monte S. Angelo
Naples, Naples 80126
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.csef.it/people/jappelli.htm

Maarten van Rooij

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

P.O. Box 98
Amsterdam, 1000 AB
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://www.dnb.nl/en/onderzoek-2/onderzoekers/overzicht-persoonlijke-paginas/dnb150127.jsp

Netspar ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

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