Download This PaperA Value-Added Trade Perspective on Recent Patterns in World Trade
The paper has appeared as Chapter 8 in: Hoekman, B. (ed.), "Global Trade Slowdown: a new normal?", VoxEU Book, CEPR 2015
8 Pages Posted: 21 Nov 2016
Date Written: May 25, 2015
Abstract
Our contribution uses trade in value added statistics to assess the causes of the recent world trade slowdown. We conclude that world trade elasticity has fallen due to a combination of regional and cyclical changes during the economic crisis. A cyclical factor is the lower cumulative trade intensity of consumer goods compared to investment goods. We find no evidence for a structural trade slowdown. In contrast, foreign value-added shares in final exports in Europe and East Asia are trending towards new peaks. The regional changes are caused by an increase of the total import share for regions with a low trade elasticity and decreased import elasticities in some regions.
Keywords: trade in value added, world trade, international business cycle
JEL Classification: F17, F43, F44, F41
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