A Poor Means Test? Econometric Targeting in Africa

55 Pages Posted: 14 Dec 2016 Last revised: 27 Apr 2018

See all articles by Caitlin Brown

Caitlin Brown

Central European University (CEU)

Martin Ravallion

Georgetown University

Dominique P. van de Walle

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Caitlin Susan Brown

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 13, 2016

Abstract

Proxy-means testing is a popular method of poverty targeting with imperfect information. In a now widely-used version, a regression for log consumption calibrates a proxy-means test score based on chosen covariates, which is then implemented for targeting out-of-sample. In this paper, the performance of various proxy-means testing methods is assessed using data for nine African countries. Standard proxy-means testing helps filter out the nonpoor, but excludes many poor people, thus diminishing the impact on poverty. Some methodological changes perform better, with a poverty-quantile method dominating in most cases. Even so, either a basic-income scheme or transfers using a simple demographic scorecard are found to do as well, or almost as well, in reducing poverty. However, even with a budget sufficient to eliminate poverty with full information, none of these targeting methods brings the poverty rate below about three-quarters of its initial value. The prevailing methods are particularly deficient in reaching the poorest.

Keywords: Inequality, Access of Poor to Social Services, Economic Assistance, Services & Transfers to Poor, Disability, Social Protections & Assistance, Poverty Diagnostics, Poverty Assessment, Poverty Lines, Poverty Monitoring & Analysis, Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping, Poverty Impact Evaluation, Employment and Shared Growth

Suggested Citation

Brown, Caitlin and Ravallion, Martin and van de Walle, Dominique P. and Brown, Caitlin Susan, A Poor Means Test? Econometric Targeting in Africa (December 13, 2016). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7915, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2885078

Caitlin Brown (Contact Author)

Central European University (CEU) ( email )

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Hungary

Martin Ravallion

Georgetown University ( email )

Washington, DC 20057
United States

Dominique P. Van de Walle

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

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Washington, DC 20433
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HOME PAGE: http://econ.worldbank.org/staff/dvandewalle

Caitlin Susan Brown

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

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