Do Voters or Politicians Choose the Outcomes of Elections? Evidence from High Stakes U.S. State Legislative Elections

63 Pages Posted: 19 Dec 2016 Last revised: 12 Oct 2017

See all articles by Dahyeon Jeong

Dahyeon Jeong

University of California, Santa Cruz - Department of Economics

Ajay Shenoy

University of California, Santa Cruz - Department of Economics

Date Written: September 6, 2017

Abstract

We study whether political parties exert precise control over the outcomes of legislative elections. We test for discontinuities in two outcomes that, in the absence of precise control, should be smooth at the threshold that determines control of the legislature: the identity of the party that previously held a majority, and the probability density of the election outcome. We apply these tests to high-stakes state elections that determine which party controls Congressional redistricting. We find overwhelming evidence of precise control, suggesting the majority party can --- through legal means --- ensure it barely retains enough seats to stay in power.

Keywords: election manipulation, electoral competition, redistricting

JEL Classification: D72, D73, J11

Suggested Citation

Jeong, Dahyeon and Shenoy, Ajay, Do Voters or Politicians Choose the Outcomes of Elections? Evidence from High Stakes U.S. State Legislative Elections (September 6, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2887548 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2887548

Dahyeon Jeong

University of California, Santa Cruz - Department of Economics ( email )

1156 High Street
Santa Cruz, CA
United States

Ajay Shenoy (Contact Author)

University of California, Santa Cruz - Department of Economics ( email )

Santa Cruz, CA 95064
United States

HOME PAGE: http://people.ucsc.edu/~azshenoy

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