U.S. Domestic Money, Inflation and Output

Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance

26 Pages Posted: 13 Nov 2001 Last revised: 19 Mar 2014

See all articles by Yunus Aksoy

Yunus Aksoy

Birkbeck University of London

Tomasz Piskorski

Columbia University - Columbia Business School, Finance

Date Written: October 1, 2001

Abstract

Recent empirical research found that the strong short-term relationship between monetary aggregates and US real output and inflation, as outlined in the classical study by M. Friedman and Schwartz, mostly disappeared since the early 1980s. In the light of the B. Friedman and Kuttner (1992) information value approach, we reevaluate the vanishing relationship between US monetary aggregates and these macroeconomic fundamentals by taking into account the international currency feature of the US dollar. In practice, by using official US data for foreign flows constructed by Porter and Judson (1996) we find that domestic money (currency component of M1 corrected for the foreign holdings of dollars) contains valuable information about future movements of US real output and inflation. Statistical evidence here provided thus suggests that the Friedman and Schwartz's stylized facts can be reestablished once the focus of analysis is back on the domestic monetary aggregates.

Keywords: foreign holdings, US monetary aggregates, information value, Friedman-Schwartz's evidence

JEL Classification: E3, E4, E5

Suggested Citation

Aksoy, Yunus and Piskorski, Tomasz, U.S. Domestic Money, Inflation and Output (October 1, 2001). Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=288947

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Tomasz Piskorski

Columbia University - Columbia Business School, Finance ( email )

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