Public Opinion on Geopolitics and Trade: Theory and Evidence

Abstract

This paper provides a systematic examination of the role of security considerations in shaping mass preferences over international economic exchange. We employ multiple survey experiments in the United States and India, along with observational and case study evidence, to investigate how geopolitics affects voters' views of international trade. We show first that respondents consistently---and by large margins---prefer trading with allies over adversaries. Negative prior beliefs about adversaries, amplified by concerns that trade will bolster the partner's military, account for this preference. Yet we also find that a significant proportion of the public believes that trade can lead to peace, and that the peace inducing aspects of trade can lead voters to overcome their aversion to trade with adversaries. Our framework helps explain when and why governments that are constrained by public opinion pursue economic cooperation in the shadow of conflict.

Keywords: trade, globalization, alliances, security, public opinion