An Onset of Cyclical Growth. Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016-2018

Abstract

In Q 3-4 2016, Russia’s economy entered the phase of cyclical growth from the lowest point of the business cycle, its typical feature being the unstable movement patterns of the main socioeconomic development indicators. Inflation hit its historic low. The ruble’s strengthening boosted the confidence of the population and businesses in the Russian national currency’s sustainability. Nevertheless, the past year saw a decline of the majority of macroeconomic variables. In 2017–2018, cyclical growth is expected to continue, but it will be sustained neither by a favorable external situation, nor by the implementation (as of the present moment) of a government reform program. In absence of any new external shocks, this can be practically viewed as a guarantee, for Russia, of a low but positive growth rate, with an exit, towards late 2018, from negative output gap zone.

Keywords: Russian Economy, Cyclical Growth, Macroeconomic Forecast

JEL Classification: E31, E42, E44, E51, E58