Doctrinal and Technological Innovations in the Indian Armed Forces: Countering Future Terrorism and Asymmetric Threats

Abstract

Here I argue that in the near term, India should consider military options other than war for a variety of reasons. Most importantly, it is far from obvious that India can achieve its objective of compelling Pakistan to abandon terrorism under its terrorist umbrella through war. Thus what India may be able to do is raise the cost of this strategy to Pakistan while seeking to deny some of the benefits that it enjoys. In this essay, I make three assumptions. First, I assume that India has chosen to cease making a virtue out of a necessity. Second, I assume that Pakistan will not resort to the use of nuclear weapons unless the very existence of the state is imperiled. The reason for this is straightforward: presently, the conditions of “mutually assured destruction” do not hold. While Pakistan can inflict grievous damage to India, India will ultimately survive. Pakistan, on the other hand, will not survive a nuclear retaliation. Most of its military, industry and population is concentrated in the Punjab region and the country lacks strategic depth as is well known. Third, I assume that China will remain as uninvolved as it has in the past and will not undertake military action against India in defence of its client’s continued ability to use terrorism as a tool of policy.

Keywords: India, asymmetric conflict, force modernization