The Reliability of Students' Earnings Expectations

48 Pages Posted: 25 Apr 2017

See all articles by Luis Diaz-Serrano

Luis Diaz-Serrano

Rovira i Virgili University; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

William Nilsson

University of the Balearic Islands

Abstract

Eliciting expectation and introducing probabilistic questions into surveys have gained important interest. In this study, we focus on the reliability of students’ earnings expectations. To what extent is observed log earnings expectations affected by random measurement error (noise)? A test-retest method is applied and reliability is found to be fairly low; about 0.59 in 2015 and about 0.67 in 2016. Particularly homogeneous samples exaggerate problems of measurement error. The analysis show how these measures of reliability can be adjusted to become more suitable to other studies, where different degrees of homogeneity are present.

Keywords: earnings expectations, reliability, measurement error

JEL Classification: C46, C83, I26

Suggested Citation

Diaz-Serrano, Luis and Nilsson, William, The Reliability of Students' Earnings Expectations. IZA Discussion Paper No. 10700, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2956795 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2956795

Luis Diaz-Serrano (Contact Author)

Rovira i Virgili University ( email )

Campus Sescelades, Carretera de Valls s/n
43006 Tarragona, Tarragona 43007
Spain

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Schaumburg-Lippe-Str. 7 / 9
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

William Nilsson

University of the Balearic Islands ( email )

Crtra. Valldemossa, km 7.5
Ed. Ramon Llull
Palma de Mallorca, Illles Balears 07122
Spain

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