Après Nous Le Déluge? Direct Democracy and Intergenerational Conflicts in Aging Societies

Hamburg Contemporary Economic Discussions No. 54, 2016

67 Pages Posted: 25 May 2017

See all articles by Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt

Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Geography and Environment

Wolfgang Maennig

Universität Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences

Malte Steenbeck

University of Hamburg - School of Business, Economics and Social Sciences

Date Written: January 2016

Abstract

To assess the likely effects of population ageing on the outcomes of direct democracy, we analyze the effect of age on voting decisions in public referenda. To this end, we provide the first quantitative review of the literature and a case study of the Stuttgart 21 referendum on one of the largest infrastructure projects in Germany. The evidence suggests that intergenerational conflicts arising from population ageing will likely be limited to areas in which the net present value differs particularly strongly across generations, such as education and health spending, green energy, and major transport projects. In such instances, however, the effect can be quantitatively relevant, raising the question of whether, as population ageing progresses, decisions should be based on social cost-benefit analyses, instead of referenda.

Keywords: aging, direct democracy, intergenerational conflict, NIMBY, referendum, Stuttgart 21, transport, voting

JEL Classification: D61, D62, H41, H71, L83, I18, R41, R58

Suggested Citation

Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. and Maennig, Wolfgang and Steenbeck, Malte, Après Nous Le Déluge? Direct Democracy and Intergenerational Conflicts in Aging Societies (January 2016). Hamburg Contemporary Economic Discussions No. 54, 2016, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2973299 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2973299

Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Geography and Environment ( email )

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://personal.lse.ac.uk/ahlfeldg/

Wolfgang Maennig (Contact Author)

Universität Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences ( email )

Von-Melle-Park 5
Hamburg, 20146
Germany

Malte Steenbeck

University of Hamburg - School of Business, Economics and Social Sciences ( email )

Welckerstrasse 8
Hamburg, D-20354
Germany

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