Mortality Effects of Economic Fluctuations in the Selected Eurozone Countries

Journal of Forecasting, Volume 38, Issue 1, pp. 39-62, January 2019, DOI: 10.1002/for.2550

52 Pages Posted: 6 Jun 2017 Last revised: 12 Feb 2019

See all articles by Malgorzata Seklecka

Malgorzata Seklecka

University of Liverpool - Institute of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics

Norazliani Lazam

Universiti Teknologi MARA - Actuarial Science Department

Athanasios A. Pantelous

Monash University - Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics

Colin O'Hare

Monash University - Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics

Date Written: September 27, 2018

Abstract

Socio-economic status is commonly conceptualised as the social standing or well-being of an individual or society. Higher socio-economic status has long been identified as a contributing factor for mortality improvement. This paper studies the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations (having GDP as a proxy) on mortality for nine most populous Eurozone countries. Based on the statistical analysis between the time-dependent indicator of the Lee and Carter (1992) model and GDP, and adaptation of the good features of the O'Hare and Li (2012) model, a new mortality model including this additional economic-related factor is proposed. Results for male and female from ages between 0-89, and similar for unisex data are provided. This new model shows a better fitting, and more plausible forecasts among a significant number of Eurozone countries. An in-depth analysis of our findings is provided to give a better understanding of the relationship between mortality and GDP fluctuations.

Keywords: Longevity; Eurozone Countries; Economic Growth (GDP); Lee-Carter (LC) Model; O'Hare-Li (OL) Model; Forecasting

JEL Classification: G22; C53; J11

Suggested Citation

Seklecka, Malgorzata and Lazam, Norazliani and Pantelous, Athanasios A. and O'Hare, Colin, Mortality Effects of Economic Fluctuations in the Selected Eurozone Countries (September 27, 2018). Journal of Forecasting, Volume 38, Issue 1, pp. 39-62, January 2019, DOI: 10.1002/for.2550 , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2980517 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2980517

Malgorzata Seklecka

University of Liverpool - Institute of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics ( email )

Peach Street
Liverpool, L697ZL
United Kingdom

Norazliani Lazam

Universiti Teknologi MARA - Actuarial Science Department ( email )

Shah Alam, 40450
Malaysia

Athanasios A. Pantelous (Contact Author)

Monash University - Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics ( email )

Wellington Road
Clayton, Victoria 3168
Australia

Colin O'Hare

Monash University - Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics ( email )

Wellington Road
Clayton, Victoria 3168
Australia

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