The Art of the Trade Deal: Quantifying the Benefits of A TPP Without the United States

Abstract

The Trump administration’s swift exit from the TPP has clearly not killed the deal as the remaining signatories consider whether to move ahead without the United States. While the overall impact of the deal would be lower without the U.S., the 11 remaining countries are better off with a TPP11 than without any agreement at all -- and some economies, including Canada, Mexico and other TPP parties in the Americas, would be better off compared to the 12-member TPP. The U.S. meanwhile would find itself a loser. This study provides quantitative evidence of trade and other economic impacts, and considers the political arguments and practical considerations about the ability to craft a sensible path forward for the remaining countries to proceed with a TPP11 in the fluid international trade context they face.

Keywords: Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP, United States, Canada

JEL Classification: F13, F15