Connecting the Northeast: A Cost Estimate for the North South Rail Link

38 Pages Posted: 31 Aug 2017

See all articles by Laura White

Laura White

Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), Students

Jean-Louis Rochet

Independent

Pete Mathias

Independent

Kate O’Gorman

Independent

Linda Bilmes

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Date Written: August 17, 2017

Abstract

This paper presents rough order-of-magnitude estimates for the capital cost of the North South Rail Link (the “Link”), a proposed infrastructure project to connect the commuter rail and Amtrak lines that currently terminate at Boston’s North and South Stations via underground tunnels. The Link’s design and construction cost was estimated using a financial model built from actual line item-costs in the Federal Transportation Administration's database of transportation projects. A regression analysis of comparable completed tunneling projects was performed to validate this estimate. The Link is estimated to cost approximately $5.9 billion in 2025 dollars for the maximum build alternative (two tunnels, four tracks, and three stations). The minimum build alternative (one tunnel, two tracks, and two stations) is estimated to cost approximately $3.8 billion. Both estimates represent a mean of several estimation techniques and are the center of a distribution of possible cost outcomes. The study also identified the areas in which cost overruns have occurred in previous tunnel and rail projects and proposes steps to mitigate against such overruns. The study did not examine the potential benefits of constructing the Link and we recommend further study of both the costs and benefits of this important project.

Suggested Citation

White, Laura and Rochet, Jean-Louis and Mathias, Pete and O’Gorman, Kate and Bilmes, Linda, Connecting the Northeast: A Cost Estimate for the North South Rail Link (August 17, 2017). HKS Working Paper No. RWP17-032, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3028863 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3028863

Laura White

Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), Students

Cambridge, MA
United States

Jean-Louis Rochet

Independent

Pete Mathias

Independent

Kate O’Gorman

Independent

Linda Bilmes (Contact Author)

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
617-495-4753 (Phone)
617-496-2554 (Fax)

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
71
Abstract Views
518
Rank
589,475
PlumX Metrics